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The economic impact of a deep decarbonisation pathway for China: a hybrid model analysis through bottom-up and top-down linking

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Résumé

The development of mid-century low-emission development strategies is critical to guiding national actions on long-term mitigation. One of the key concerns in developing mitigation strategies is the cost of low-carbon transition. In this study, we estimate the macroeconomic cost of a deep decarbonisation pathway for China, by integrating an energy-systems optimization model with an economic model through hard linking. Our results indicate that deep decarbonisation increases the energy expenses of Chinese households in the mid-run due to the higher cost of electricity. However, firms will benefit from moderate decarbonization through a reduction in coal and oil consumption. Energy-efficiency improvements lead to a reduction in firms' total energy costs, partially compensating the crowdingout effect of low-carbon investments on general productive capital. Our mitigation scenario has therefore a small macroeconomic cost compared to business as usual, equal to a lag in growth of less than one year in 2050.
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hal-03487333 , version 1 (17-12-2021)

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  • HAL Id : hal-03487333 , version 1

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Xin Su, Frédéric Ghersi, Fei Teng, Gaëlle Le Treut, Meicong Liang. The economic impact of a deep decarbonisation pathway for China: a hybrid model analysis through bottom-up and top-down linking. 2021. ⟨hal-03487333⟩
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