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, OPEC has never constituted a cartel. In light of such evidence, we assume exogenous oil price trajectories in all our scenarios
, Given that oil demand is projected to increase in both scenarios (global oil demand in the SDS peaks in the mid-2020), current under-investment in oil resources is projected to raise oil prices up to 2025. 39 Beyond this horizon, outlooks diverge: moderate climate policy will sustain oil demand, driving oil price up in the NPS. In contrast, higher penetration of electric vehicles and larger efficiency gains in the transport sector in addition to climate policy tightening will cause the oil price to decline under the SDS, Our oil price scenarios derive from IEA, 2017.
, Saudi Arabia exported around 7 mb/d crude oil, 41 whereas refined products exports, By, 2017.
, For the remaining sectors, i.e. crude oil and refined products, we assume that (1) the Saudi output of crude oil reaches 12.7 mb/d by 2030. This corresponds to the Saudi oil supply projected by the IEA (2017) in the NPS. This requires additional output of around 2 mb/d compared to current levels. However, according to existing estimates, Saudi Arabia already has a spare capacity, our Baseline scenario, KEM reports natural gas output and electricity generation based on energy prices as previously described, 2017.
, ) Imports of refined products, which in fact correspond to total Saudi energy imports, follow potential growth at 2.23% per year up to, vol.42
, KEM provides natural gas output and electricity generation based on reformed tariffs. We maintain the assumption that both supplies meet domestic demand only. Concerning oil, we assume that Saudi Arabia keeps its export volume unchanged 41 This resulted from an output cut following OPEC and non-OPEC accord
, In our Reformed scenario, the penetration of renewables and nuclear increases the capital cost of power generation, than alternative technologies
, The resulting aggregate capital intensity of energy production remains broadly stable in the
, Baseline (and hence Low-oil-price) scenario, although ending some 2.5% below its 2013 level in 2030 thanks to increased utilisation rates-output increases faster than capital expenditures relative to the base year (+45.6% vs. +25.1%)