Macroeconomic pathways of the Saudi economy: the challenge of global mitigation action versus the opportunity of national energy reforms

Abstract : Highlights : - We calibrate a hybrid dynamic recursive CGE model of Saudi Arabia on original data - We acknowledge the Saudi specifics of currency peg and investment stability - We explore 3 scenarios of international and domestic energy prices - Low global prices affect Saudi GDP little but lower national and public savings - Reformed domestic prices restore activity but not national or public savings Abstract : We analyse the mid-term macroeconomic challenge to Saudi Arabia of a global low-carbon transition reducing oil revenues, versus the opportunity of national energy reforms. We calibrate a compact, dynamic recursive model of Saudi Arabia on original energy-economy data to explore scenarios. We first assess the consequences of oil prices declining from their levels in the New Policies Scenario (NPS) of the IEA, to their levels in its Sustainable