State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
Jacob Schewe
(1)
,
Simon Gosling
(2)
,
Christopher Reyer
(3)
,
Fang Zhao
(4)
,
Philippe Ciais
(5, 6)
,
Joshua Elliott
(7)
,
Louis Francois
(8)
,
Veronika Huber
(3)
,
Heike Lotze
(9)
,
Sonia I Seneviratne
(10)
,
Michelle van Vliet
(11)
,
Robert Vautard
(5, 12)
,
Yoshihide I Wada
(13)
,
Lutz Breuer
(14)
,
Matthias Büchner
(15)
,
David Carozza
(16)
,
Jinfeng Chang
(5)
,
Marta Coll
(17)
,
Delphine Deryng
(18)
,
Allard de Wit
(19)
,
Tyler Eddy
,
Christian Folberth
(20)
,
Katja Frieler
(15)
,
Andrew Friend
(21)
,
Dieter Gerten
(3)
,
Lukas Gudmundsson
(22)
,
Naota Hanasaki
(23)
,
Akihiko Ito
(23)
,
Nikolay Khabarov
(13)
,
Hyungjun J Kim
(24)
,
Peter Lawrence
(25)
,
Catherine Morfopoulos
,
Christoph Müller
(15)
,
Hannes Müller Schmied
(26)
,
René Orth
,
Sebastian Ostberg
(3)
,
Yadu N. Pokhrel
(27)
,
Thomas A.M. Pugh
(28)
,
Gen Sakurai
,
Yusuke Satoh
,
Erwin Schmid
(29)
,
Tobias Stacke
(30)
,
Jeroen Steenbeek
(31)
,
Jörg Steinkamp
,
Qiuhong Tang
,
Hanqin Tian
(32)
,
Derek Tittensor
,
Jan Volkholz
(3)
,
Xuhui Wang
(33)
,
Lila Warszawski
(1)
1
PIK -
Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
2 UON - University of Nottingham, UK
3 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
4 ECNU - East China Normal University [Shangaï]
5 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
6 ICOS-ATC - ICOS-ATC
7 University of Chicago
8 Institut d'Astrophysique et de Géophysique [Liège]
9 Dalhousie University [Halifax]
10 IAC - Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich]
11 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
12 ESTIMR - Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation
13 IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
14 Inst Landscape Ecol & Resources Management
15 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
16 UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal
17 UMR MARBEC - MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation
18 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
19 WUR - Wageningen University and Research Centre
20 Department of Geography
21 CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
22 Department of Geosciences [Oslo]
23 NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies
24 IIS - Institute of Industrial Science
25 GIMAP - Groupe Immunité des Muqueuses et Agents Pathogènes
26 Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main
27 CEE - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Ann Arbor]
28 IMK - Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research
29 BOKU - Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life [Vienne, Autriche]
30 GKSS - Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht
31 Ecopath International Initiative Research Association
32 SDAU - Shandong Agricultural University
33 LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)
2 UON - University of Nottingham, UK
3 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
4 ECNU - East China Normal University [Shangaï]
5 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
6 ICOS-ATC - ICOS-ATC
7 University of Chicago
8 Institut d'Astrophysique et de Géophysique [Liège]
9 Dalhousie University [Halifax]
10 IAC - Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich]
11 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
12 ESTIMR - Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation
13 IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
14 Inst Landscape Ecol & Resources Management
15 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
16 UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal
17 UMR MARBEC - MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation
18 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
19 WUR - Wageningen University and Research Centre
20 Department of Geography
21 CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
22 Department of Geosciences [Oslo]
23 NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies
24 IIS - Institute of Industrial Science
25 GIMAP - Groupe Immunité des Muqueuses et Agents Pathogènes
26 Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main
27 CEE - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Ann Arbor]
28 IMK - Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research
29 BOKU - Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life [Vienne, Autriche]
30 GKSS - Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht
31 Ecopath International Initiative Research Association
32 SDAU - Shandong Agricultural University
33 LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)
Philippe Ciais
- Fonction : Auteur
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- ORCID : 0000-0001-8560-4943
- IdRef : 092241700
Veronika Huber
- Fonction : Auteur
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- ORCID : 0000-0001-9633-2752
Jinfeng Chang
- Fonction : Auteur
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- ORCID : 0000-0003-4463-7778
Delphine Deryng
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 772077
- ORCID : 0000-0001-6214-7241
Tyler Eddy
- Fonction : Auteur
Christian Folberth
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 783789
- ORCID : 0000-0002-6738-5238
Akihiko Ito
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 759293
- ORCID : 0000-0001-5265-0791
Catherine Morfopoulos
- Fonction : Auteur
Christoph Müller
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 772079
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2234-6902
René Orth
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 791032
- ORCID : 0000-0002-9853-921X
Gen Sakurai
- Fonction : Auteur
Yusuke Satoh
- Fonction : Auteur
Tobias Stacke
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 792419
- ORCID : 0000-0003-4637-5337
Jörg Steinkamp
- Fonction : Auteur
Qiuhong Tang
- Fonction : Auteur
Hanqin Tian
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 760801
- ORCID : 0000-0002-1806-4091
Derek Tittensor
- Fonction : Auteur
Xuhui Wang
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 775743
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0818-9816
Résumé
Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.
Domaines
Climatologie
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