Le couple anticipation/décision aux prises avec l'exceptionnel, l'imprévu et l'incertitude
Résumé
Anticipation and decision-making in crisis situations are subject of numerous studies that highlight the polysemy of these concepts as well as the difficulties regularly encountered during their implementation (context of uncertainty, format and circulation of information, different perceptions of the situation between actors and geographical scales, etc.). Through two case studies located during the Irma-José-Maria crisis, one observed in the National French Crisis Center and the other experienced by a government operator, at a more regional level, this article illustrates these obstacles and highlights the fragmentation of the anticipation/decision couple in the practice of the different ORSEC levels. It appears that the lack of a shared vision within and between the crisis units on the nature, time horizon and methodological framework of the anticipation function were as many obstacles to its effective implementation during the cyclone sequence. This situation is due in particular to the co-existence of different ministerial cultures of anticipation. As time appears to be a structuring and critical element of an adaptive and shared anticipatory approach, the authors argue for an understanding of the anticipation/decision-making relationship in terms of a continuum, assuming the plurality of cultures and integrating all temporalities.
L'anticipation et la prise de décision en situation de crise font l'objet de nombreuses études qui mettent en avant la polysémie de ces notions ainsi que les difficultés régulièrement rencontrés lors de leur mise en oeuvre (contexte d'incertitude, format et circulation de l'information, perceptions différentes de la situation entre les acteurs et les échelles géographiques, etc.). A travers deux études de cas situées pendant la crise Irma-José-Maria, l'une observée en CIC, au niveau interministériel, et l'autre vécue par un opérateur de l'Etat, au niveau territorial, cet article illustre ces obstacles et souligne la fragmentation du couple anticipation/décision dans la pratique des différents niveaux ORSEC. Il apparaît en effet que l'absence d'une vision partagée au sein et entre les cellules de crise sur la nature, l'horizon temporel et le cadre méthodologique de la fonction anticipation ont été autant d'entraves à sa mise en oeuvre effective pendant la séquence cyclonique. Cette situation trouve notamment son origine dans la coexistence de cultures ministérielles différentes de l'anticipation. Le temps apparaissant comme un élément structurant et critique d'une démarche anticipative adaptative et partagée, les auteurs plaident pour une compréhension du couple anticipation / prise de décision en termes de continuum, assumant la pluralité des cultures et intégrant l'ensemble des temporalités. Abstract Anticipation and decision-making in crisis situations are subject of numerous studies that highlight the polysemy of these concepts as well as the difficulties regularly encountered during their implementation (context of uncertainty, format and circulation of information, different perceptions of the situation between actors and geographical scales, etc.). Through two case studies located during the Irma-José-Maria crisis, one observed in the National French Crisis Center and the other experienced by a government operator, at a more regional level, this article illustrates these obstacles and highlights the fragmentation of the anticipation/decision couple in the practice of the different ORSEC levels. It appears that the lack of a shared vision within and between the crisis units on the nature, time horizon and methodological framework of the anticipation function were as many obstacles to its effective implementation during the cyclone sequence. This situation is due in particular to the coexistence of different ministerial cultures of anticipation. As time appears to be a structuring and critical element of an adaptive and shared anticipatory approach, the authors argue for an understanding of the anticipation/decision-making relationship in terms of a continuum, assuming the plurality of cultures and integrating all temporalities.
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
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