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, Appendices A Composition of functional groups

, Taxonomic classes and stage classes contributing to each zooplankton group are listed in table A1. Major phytoplankton species in Lake Bourget making up the top ~80 % biovolume of each phytoplankton group, and the taxonomic class they belong are

, Sensitivity of scenario analysis to the model structure

, is really associated with thèpriority eect' as claimed in the main text, in the absence of its competitors (other phytoplankton groups), P. Rubescens should reach to substantial abundances in 2010, even if starting from a small initial abundance after winter. In order to test this prediction, we performed the scenario analysis with an alternative model structure, which P. Rubescens is the only autotroph available in the system, herbivorous zooplankton (ZH) feeds on P, 2010.

C. Rubescens and . Zooplankton, Results of the scenario analysis obtained with this simple model structure is qualitatively dierent than those obtained with the reference model described in the text: initial inoculum of P. Rubescens indeed only determines the timing of the bloom, and not the presence/absence (Fig. B1) This analysis suggests that the disappearance of P. Rubescens from Lake Bourget is not a simple linear response to the inoculum size, but a case of competitive exclusion facilitated by the priority eect

, Surface (0-20 m) average water column average state variables with initial DIP concentration of DIP 0 = 0.46 mmolP m 3 as in 2010 (solid lines), DIP 0 = 0.91 mmolP m 3 as in 2004 (dashed lines), in combination with initial P. rubescens concentration of P R 0 = 0.01 mmolC m 3 as (was assumed) in 2010 (no marker), (triangles). Initial conditions for all other variables and meteorological forcing was as, 2010.