The ASHA model: An alternative to the Markovian approach to housing vacancy chains: An application to the study of population in Lille (Nord, France) - École des Ponts ParisTech Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Urban Studies Année : 2017

The ASHA model: An alternative to the Markovian approach to housing vacancy chains: An application to the study of population in Lille (Nord, France)

Olivier Boisard
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Résumé

This article proposes an alternative method to Markovian approaches through the ASHA model. Its objective is to simulate the impact of the housing stock on population redistribution at a given scale and duration, by modelling the processes whereby residential mobilities are linked, initiated either by a change in the housing stock, or by a movement of housing releases that does not lead to a dwelling being occupied within the study area. The model takes into account the mobilities specific to each household category, in terms – for example – of social position, age, size or the dwelling occupied. It provides information on trends in the population structures of the different housing types brought about by vacancies-reoccupancies. The article begins by describing the model’s theoretical foundations (filtering process and housing vacancy chains) and conception. It then goes on to present, through the example of the city of Lille (Nord, France), a method of data classification allows comparative analysis suited to the application of the ASHA model. Next, it illustrates the model’s analytical scope and the way it can be used to understand the organization of a housing system. Finally, drawing on a number of examples (family accommodation, gentrification, housing programmes), it sets out the model’s operational utility and the way local managers can use it to understand and anticipate the impact of housing policy on the urban population.
本文通过住房系统分析 (ASHA) 模型,提议了一种不同于马尔可夫链的方法。这一模型的目的是通过对过程建模,模拟特定尺度和时期内房屋存量对于人口再分布的影响。通过建模,居民的流动性之间建立了关联(导致这种流动性的,或者是房屋存量的变化,或者是房屋的推出未带来所研究区域的居住)。模型考虑了每种家庭类型特定的流动性,例如在社会地位、年龄、房屋面积或居住面积等意义上。它通过空置-转手带来的不同家庭类型,提供了关于人口结构趋势的信息。本文首先描述了该模型的理论基础(筛选过程和住房空置链)和概念。然后,文章以里尔(法国北部城市)为例,展示了一种支持比较分析的数据分类方法,适用于 ASHA 模型的应用。随后,文章展示了该模型的分析范围以及它可如何用于理解住房系统的组织结构。最后,通过一系列例子(家庭寄宿、绅士化、住房计划),本文列明了该模型的运用用途,以及地方房产经理人可如何利用它来理解和预期住房政策对城市人口的影响。
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Dates et versions

hal-01420406 , version 1 (07-03-2024)

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Jean-Pierre Lévy, Olivier Boisard, Julien Salingue. The ASHA model: An alternative to the Markovian approach to housing vacancy chains: An application to the study of population in Lille (Nord, France). Urban Studies, 2017, 54 (11), pp.2448-2471. ⟨10.1177/0042098016651553⟩. ⟨hal-01420406⟩
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