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Growth, Agriculture & Employment: Towards a Climate-Friendly World Without Farmers?

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Résumé

The Lewisian path of economic growth has long been seen by analysts and policy makers as a conceptual map for the long term future of agriculture, namely that people move from agricultural to non-agricultural occupations, farm labour productivity increases with the use of modern industrial inputs, income disparities across sectors decline, and, over time, few remain in farming. This was the scenario in OECD countries. However, in large parts of the developing world we observe opposite historical trends, with an increase in the agricultural labour force and a rise in the cross-sectoral income gap. In this paper, we demonstrate that a land constraint rather than barriers to modern technology drives the structural divergences within and between countries. We outline four global scenarios of structural change, examine parameters that prevent countries from moving along the last stage of the Lewisian path, and suggest small-scale agro-ecological farming as an alternative to large-scale industrial agriculture and mega-slum-urbanization.
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Dates et versions

hal-01174717 , version 1 (09-07-2015)

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  • HAL Id : hal-01174717 , version 1

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Bruno Dorin. Growth, Agriculture & Employment: Towards a Climate-Friendly World Without Farmers?. Low Carbon Society Research Network (LCS-RNet), 7th Meeting, Jun 2015, Paris, France. ⟨hal-01174717⟩
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