Adapting cities to climate change: A systemic modelling approach

V. Masson 1 Colette Marchadier 1 L. Adolphe 2 Rahim Aguejdad 3, 4 P. Avner 5 Marc Bonhomme 6 Geneviève Bretagne 7 X. Briottet 8 B. Bueno 1 Cécile de Munck 1 O. Doukari 9 Stéphane Hallegatte 10 Julia Hidalgo 11 Thomas Houet 9 J. Le Bras 1 Aude Lemonsu 1 Nathalie Long 12 M.-P. Moine 13 T. Morel 13 L. Nolorgues 14 G. Pigeon 1 J.-L. Salagnac 15 V. Viguié 5 K. Zibouche 15
1 CNRM-GAME - Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique
2 LRA - Laboratoire de recherche en architecture
3 LETG - Rennes - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique
LETG - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique UMR 6554
4 CAREN - Centre Armoricain de Recherche en Environnement
5 CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement
6 PIAF - Laboratoire de Physique et Physiologie Intégratives de l'Arbre Fruitier et Forestier
7 Urban Planning Agency, Toulouse, France
8 ONERA - The French Aerospace Lab [Toulouse]
9 GEODE - Géographie de l'environnement
10 World Bank
11 LISST - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Solidarités, Sociétés, Territoires
12 LIENSs - LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés - UMR 7266
13 CERFACS [Toulouse]
14 Urban Planning Agency of Île-de-France, Paris, France
15 CSTB - Centre Scientifique et Technique du Bâtiment
Abstract : Societies have to both reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and undertake adaptation measures to limit the negative impacts of global warming on the population, the economy and the environment. Examining how best to adapt cities is especially challenging as urban areas will evolve as the climate changes. Thus, examining adaptation strategies for cities requires a strong interdisciplinary approach involving urban planners, architects, meteorologists, building engineers, economists, and social scientists. Here we introduce a systemic modelling approach to the problem. Our four-step methodology consists of: first, defining interdisciplinary scenarios; second, simulating the long-term evolution of cities on the basis of socio-economic and land-use models; third, calculating impacts with physical models (such as TEB), and; finally, calculating the indicators that quantify the effect of different adaptation policies. In the examples presented here, urban planning strategies are shown to have unexpected influence on city expansion in the long term. Moreover, the Urban Heat Island should be taken into account in operational estimations of building energy demands. Citizens’ practices seem to be an efficient lever for reducing energy consumption in buildings. Interdisciplinary systemic modelling appears well suited to the evaluation of several adaptation strategies for a very broad range of topics.
Keywords : Systemic modelling Urban Heat Island Adaptation Cities Climate Change
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https://hal-enpc.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01136215
Contributeur : Vincent Viguié <>
Soumis le : mardi 31 mars 2015 - 15:49:46
Dernière modification le : jeudi 20 février 2020 - 19:21:26
Archivage à long terme le : mardi 18 avril 2017 - 00:38:16

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ENPC | CNRS | UNIV-BREST | UNIV-RENNES1 | INRA | CSTB | METEO | LETG-COSTEL | AGROPARISTECH | INSU | LETG | CERFACS | UNIV-NANTES | PIAF | PRES_CLERMONT | CIRAD | ONERA | CIRED | GEODE | UNIV-TLSE2 | PARISTECH | EHESS | LISST | UR2-HB | ACL-SHS | ACL-SVSAE | SMS | PSL | UNIV-ROCHELLE | UNIV-RENNES2 | UNIV-ANGERS | EPHE | COMUE-NORMANDIE | UNIV-RENNES | UNICAEN | OSUR

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V. Masson, Colette Marchadier, L. Adolphe, Rahim Aguejdad, P. Avner, et al.. Adapting cities to climate change: A systemic modelling approach. Urban Climate, Elsevier, 2014, 10 (2), pp.407-429. ⟨10.1016/j.uclim.2014.03.004⟩. ⟨hal-01136215⟩

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