Prospective quantitative des dynamiques urbaines: Enjeux, obstacles et leviers de la ville " post-carbone "

P. C. Allio (1) , H. Waisman (1)

1 CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement

This study presents the technological, organizational and macroeconomic contexts of the six transition scenarios to post carbon cities as defined in the program "Repenser des villes dans une société post-carbone" (CGDD-ADEME) . The results illustrate the need to act quickly to deal with the inertia of urban systems to allow a greater emissions reduction by 2050, and higher average growth over the next 50 years. For example, the introduction of a faster carbon tax allows a higher emission reduction of nearly 20 points and higher growth rate around 0.05 points. However, the pace of government action is not the only important variable. Acting on price signals only cannot achieve the goal of reducing emissions by a factor four by 2050. Actions on the price of carbon should be accompanied by measures of infrastructure (housing, transportation, energy production) , but also norms that affect urban form (urban tolls, densification). Finally, rethinking development patterns seems necessary to establish a post-carbon society. Economic tools as used in this report can highlight the objectives, but can hardly trace the path to achieve them. The transition to a post-carbon society must be guided by the entire scientific community, whether in the field of innovation technology or social sciences.

Domaines: Sciences de l'environnement

P. C. Allio, H. Waisman. Prospective quantitative des dynamiques urbaines: Enjeux, obstacles et leviers de la ville " post-carbone ". 2012, pp.89. ⟨hal-00799918⟩