N. W. Arnell, Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios, Global Environmental Change, vol.14, issue.1, pp.31-52, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.006

N. W. Arnel, T. Kram, T. Carter, K. Ebi, J. Edmonds et al., A framework for a new generation of socioeconomic scenarios for climate change impact, adaptation, vulnerability, and mitigation research

B. P. Bryant and R. J. Lempert, Thinking inside the box: A participatory, computer-assisted approach to scenario discovery, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol.77, issue.1, pp.34-49, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/j.techfore.2009.08.002

R. S. Chen and R. W. Kates, World food security: prospects and trends, Food Policy, vol.19, issue.2, pp.192-208, 1994.
DOI : 10.1016/0306-9192(94)90069-8

S. J. Davis, K. Caldeira, and H. D. Matthews, Future CO2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure, Science, vol.329, issue.5997, pp.1330-1333, 2010.
DOI : 10.1126/science.1188566

URL : http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/45b3k4t0

H. Füssel, Review and quantitative analysis of indices of climate change exposure, adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and impacts. Background note to the World Development Report, 2009.

K. Gërxhani, The Informal Sector in Developed and Less Developed Countries: A Literature Survey, Public Choice, vol.120, issue.3/4, pp.276-300, 2004.
DOI : 10.1023/B:PUCH.0000044287.88147.5e

D. G. Groves and R. J. Lempert, A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios, Global Environmental Change, vol.17, issue.1, pp.73-85, 2007.
DOI : 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.11.006

C. Guivarch and S. Hallegatte, Existing infrastructure and the 2??C target, Climatic Change, vol.81, issue.2, pp.801-805, 2011.
DOI : 10.1007/s10584-011-0268-5

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00724493

F. Gusdorf and S. Hallegatte, Compact or spread-out cities: Urban planning, taxation, and the vulnerability to transportation shocks, Energy Policy, vol.35, issue.10, pp.4826-4838, 2007.
DOI : 10.1016/j.enpol.2007.04.017

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00259386

F. Gusdorf, S. Hallegatte, and A. Lahellec, Time and space matter: How urban transitions create inequality, Global Environmental Change, vol.18, issue.4, pp.708-719, 2008.
DOI : 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.06.005

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00719283

S. Hallegatte, Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change, Global Environmental Change, vol.19, issue.2, pp.240-247, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.12.003

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00715561

S. Hallegatte, V. Przyluski, and A. Vogt-schilb, Building world narratives for climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses, Nature Climate Change, vol.1, issue.3, pp.151-155, 2011.
DOI : 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.006

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00618688

E. Kriegler, Socio-economic Scenario Development for Climate Change Analysis, 2010.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00866437

R. Lempert and D. G. Groves, Identifying and evaluating robust adaptive policy responses to climate change for water management agencies in the American west, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol.77, issue.6, pp.960-974, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/j.techfore.2010.04.007

R. J. Lempert, S. W. Popper, and S. C. Bankes, Shaping the Next One Hundred Years : New Methods for Quantitative, Long-term Policy Analysis, xxi, 187 p, 2003.

R. J. Lempert and D. B. Lobell, Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030, Scenarios that Illuminate Vulnerabilities and Robust Responses, p.607, 2008.

J. Luoma, « World's Pall of Black Carbon Can Be Eased with New Stoves, 2010.

R. H. Moss, The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, Nature, vol.91, issue.7282, pp.747-756, 2010.
DOI : 10.1038/nature08823

. Noble, Climate change, Ecosystems and Human Well-Being, 2005.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/bioemco-00539801

O. 'brien and K. , Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India, Global Environmental Change, vol.14, issue.4, pp.303-313, 2004.

O. Neill, B. C. Carter, T. Ebi, K. L. Edmonds, J. Hallegatte et al., Meeting Report of the Workshop on The Nature and Use of New Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Research, 2011.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00801931

. Webster, Global-Change Scenarios: Their Development and Use, Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1b, public review draft Rep, 2006.

A. K. Reddy, Energy and social issues.World Energy Assessment, Energy and the challenge of sustainability, 2000.

B. S. Reddy and P. Balachandra, Dynamics of technology shifts in the household sector???implications for clean development mechanism, Energy Policy, vol.34, issue.16, pp.2586-2599, 2006.
DOI : 10.1016/j.enpol.2004.08.019

J. Rozenberg, S. Hallegatte, A. Vogt-schilb, O. Sassi, C. Guivarch et al., Climate policies as a hedge against the uncertainty on future oil supply, Climatic Change, vol.306, issue.5695, pp.3-4, 2010.
DOI : 10.1007/s10584-010-9868-8

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00866449

B. Smit and J. Wandel, Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability, Global Environmental Change, vol.16, issue.3, pp.282-292, 2006.
DOI : 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.008

M. A. Toman, J. Griffin, and R. J. Lempert, Impacts on U.S. energy expenditures and greenhouse-gas emissions of increasing renewable-energy use : technical reportRep. 9780833044976 (pbk. alk. paper), xvii, 2008.

D. P. Vanvuuren, Developing New Scenarios as a Thread for Future Climate Research IPCC Working Paper, 2010.

H. D. Waisman, C. Guivarch, F. Grazi, and J. Hourcade, The Imaclim-R Model: Infrastructures, Technical Inertia and the Costs of Low Carbon Futures under Imperfect Foresight Climatic Change (forthcoming) DOI 10, pp.10584-10595, 1007.

E. Worrell and G. Biermans, Move over! Stock turnover, retrofit and industrial energy efficiency, Energy Policy, vol.33, issue.7, pp.949-962, 2005.
DOI : 10.1016/j.enpol.2003.10.017

L. Fulton and G. Eads, IEA/SMP model documentation and reference case projection, 2004.

F. Grazi, J. Van-den-bergh, and J. Van-ommeren, An Empirical Analysis of Urban Form, Transport, and Global Warming, The Energy Journal, vol.29, issue.4, pp.97-107, 2008.
DOI : 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol29-No4-5

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00784239

L. Greening, D. Greene, and C. Difiglio, Energy efficiency and consumption ??? the rebound effect ??? a survey, Energy Policy, vol.28, issue.6-7, pp.389-401, 2000.
DOI : 10.1016/S0301-4215(00)00021-5

A. Grübler, N. Naki?enovi?, and D. G. Victor, Dynamics of energy technologies and global change, Energy Policy, vol.27, issue.5, pp.247-280, 1999.
DOI : 10.1016/S0301-4215(98)00067-6

S. Holland, Extraction capacity and the optimal order of extraction, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, vol.45, issue.3, pp.569-588, 2003.
DOI : 10.1016/S0095-0696(02)00026-8

R. Kaufmann, S. Dees, P. Karadeloglou, and M. Sanchez, Does OPEC Matter? An Econometric Analysis of Oil Prices, The Energy Journal, vol.25, issue.4, pp.67-90, 2004.
DOI : 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol25-No4-4

M. Kemp and N. Van-long, On Two Folk Theorems Concerning the Extraction of Exhaustible Resources, Econometrica, vol.48, issue.3, pp.663-673, 1980.
DOI : 10.2307/1913129

T. Rehrl and R. Friedrich, Modelling long-term oil price and extraction with a Hubbert approach: The LOPEX model, Energy Policy, vol.34, issue.15, pp.2413-2428, 2006.
DOI : 10.1016/j.enpol.2005.03.021

D. Reynolds, The mineral economy: how prices and costs can falsely signal decreasing scarcity, Ecological Economics, vol.31, issue.1, pp.155-166, 1999.
DOI : 10.1016/S0921-8009(99)00098-1

R. Solow, A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.70, issue.1, pp.65-94, 1956.
DOI : 10.2307/1884513

R. Uhler, Costs and Supply in Petroleum Exploration: The Case of Alberta, The Canadian Journal of Economics, vol.9, issue.1, pp.72-90, 1976.
DOI : 10.2307/134416

Y. Zahavi and A. Talvitie, Regularities in Travel Time and Money Expenditures, Transportation Research Record, vol.750, pp.13-19, 1980.