Accéder directement au contenu Accéder directement à la navigation
Pré-publication, Document de travail

Building SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis : A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation

Abstract : The scientific community is now developing a new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) to replace the SRES scenarios. To be used to investigate adaptation and mitigation, SSPs need to be contrasted along two axes: challenges to mitigation, and challenges to adaptation. This paper proposes a methodology to develop SSPs with a "backward" approach. The methodology is based on (i) an a priori identification of potential drivers of mitigation and adaptation challenges; (ii) a modelling exercise to transform these drivers into a large set of scenarios; (iii) an a posteriori selection of a few SSPs among these scenarios, such that they cover the uncertainty space in terms of challenges to adaptation and mitigation. This methodology is applied to the selection of a few SSPs, but it could also be applied to any specific decisions faced by decision-makers. From a large database of runs built by many models, the methodology would allow selecting the most relevant scenarios for a specific decision, i.e. scenarios that best predict when the analyzed choice performs poorly or well.
Type de document :
Pré-publication, Document de travail
Liste complète des métadonnées

Littérature citée [43 références]  Voir  Masquer  Télécharger

https://hal-enpc.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00793927
Contributeur : Julie Rozenberg <>
Soumis le : dimanche 24 février 2013 - 12:58:38
Dernière modification le : mercredi 14 octobre 2020 - 03:49:56
Archivage à long terme le : : samedi 25 mai 2013 - 04:03:33

Fichier

FEEM_WP.pdf
Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-00793927, version 1

Collections

Citation

Julie Rozenberg, Céline Guivarch, R.J. Lempert, Stéphane Hallegatte. Building SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis : A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation. 2012. ⟨hal-00793927⟩

Partager

Métriques

Consultations de la notice

557

Téléchargements de fichiers

799