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Article dans une revue

Determination in real time of the reliability of radar rainfall forecasts

Abstract : Quantitative rainfall forecasts obtained from interpretation of radar data can be of great interest in urban hydrology, provided their reliability is known in real time. The aim of this study was to examine the feasibility of an a priori estimation of forecast reliability from characteristics of rainfall areas and atmospheric vertical structure. The first step has been to design a method to check the relevance of a criterion of forecasting quality to a particular application of the forecasts. This method was applied to the case of real-time control of a drainage network in a suburban area of Paris, and led to the definition of a new quality criterion, consistent with the user's utility function. Potential predictors of forecasting quality were then defined, to be calculated in real time from radar and rawinsonde data. In the final step, statistical and heuristic techniques, applied to a learning set of examples taken from 46 rainfall events, provided decision rules which can be used in real time to estimate the quality of radar forecasts. Although these rules are valid only in a specific operational context, the methodology is general, and can be transferred to other forecasting problems in hydrology, as well as in other domains. © 1991.
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Soumis le : mardi 22 janvier 2013 - 12:54:43
Dernière modification le : mardi 10 novembre 2020 - 09:08:03


  • HAL Id : hal-00779570, version 1



T. Denoeux, T. Einfalt, G. Jacquet. Determination in real time of the reliability of radar rainfall forecasts. Journal of Hydrology, Elsevier, 1991, 122 (41365), pp.353. ⟨hal-00779570⟩



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