RECIPE - The Economics of Decarbonization. Synthesis Report on line
Résumé
The global economy's appetite for energy is big and rising. At the same time, the Earth's ability to digest the waste products of energy consumption is decreasing. Newest scientific evidence suggests that global warming proceeds more rapidly than previously anticipated: CO2 emissions growth is higher than thought, the oceans' capacity to act as natural carbon sinks has declined, and a future decrease of the cooling effect caused by aerosols is likely. Dangerous climate change becomes ever more likely, its mitigation ever more pressing. RECIPE ( Report on Energy and Climate Policy in Europe ) outlines roadmaps towards a low-carbon world economy. Three structurally different energy-economy models were used to explore possible future development paths under a range of different assumptions about the nature of the low-carbon transition. RECIPE projects that without measures to decarbonize energy systems, unabated carbon emissions will raise atmospheric concentrations to between 730 parts per million ( ppm ) and 840 ppm CO2, inducing a global mean temperature increase of 3-7°C above pre-industrial levels. The warming would come with severe impacts on natural and social systems. In addition, several tipping points, i. e. critical thresholds at which small perturbations can induce a qualitative shift in the mode of operation of the climate system, would likely be crossed, inflicting unprecedented damages on human settlements and ecosystems. http://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/sustainable-solutions/research/ClimatePolicies/recipe-groupspace/working-papers/recipe-synthesis-report