Stochastic and scaling climate sensitivities: Solar, volcanic and orbital forcings

Abstract : Climate sensitivity (lambda) is usually defined as a deterministic quantity relating climate forcings and responses. While this may be appropriate for evaluating the outputs of (deterministic) GCM's it is problematic for estimating sensitivities from empirical data. We introduce a stochastic definition where it is only a statistical link between the forcing and response, an upper bound on the deterministic sensitivities. Over the range approximate to 30 yrs to 100 kyrs we estimate this lambda using temperature data from instruments, reanalyses, multiproxies and paleo spources; the forcings include several solar, volcanic and orbital series. With the exception of the latter - we find that lambda is roughly a scaling function of resolution Delta t: lambda approximate to Delta t(H lambda), with exponent 0 approximate to less than H-lambda approximate to less than 0.7. Since most have H-lambda more than 0, the implied feedbacks must generally increase with scale and this may be difficult to achieve with existing GCM's.
Type de document :
Article dans une revue
Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union, 2012, 39, pp.L11702. 〈10.1029/2012GL051871〉
Liste complète des métadonnées

https://hal-enpc.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00732205
Contributeur : Ist Enpc <>
Soumis le : vendredi 14 septembre 2012 - 11:20:56
Dernière modification le : jeudi 27 septembre 2018 - 08:02:02

Lien texte intégral

Identifiants

Citation

S. Lovejoy, D Schertzer. Stochastic and scaling climate sensitivities: Solar, volcanic and orbital forcings. Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union, 2012, 39, pp.L11702. 〈10.1029/2012GL051871〉. 〈hal-00732205〉

Partager

Métriques

Consultations de la notice

146