Endogenous structural change and climate targets.

Renaud Crassous (1, 2) , Jean Charles Hourcade (1) , Olivier Sassi (1)

1 CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement
2 ENGREF - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural, des Eaux et des Forêts

This paper envisages endogenous technical change as resulting from the interplay between the economic growth engine, consumption, technology and localization patterns. We perform numerical simulations with the recursive dynamic general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R to study how modeling induced technical change affects costs of CO2 stabilization. IMACLIM-R incorporates innovative specifications about final consumption of transportation and energy to represent critical stylized facts such as rebound effects and demand induction by infrastructures and equipments. Doing so brings to light how induced technical change may not only lower stabilization costs thanks to pure technological progress, but also triggers induction of final demand - effects critical to both the level of the carbon tax and the costs of policy given a specific stabilization target. Finally, we study the sensitivity of total stabilization costs to various parameters including both technical assumptions as accelerated turnover of equipments and non-energy choices as alternative infrastructure policies.

Mots clés: induced technical change; structural change; climate policy; carbon tax; transportation; infrastructures

Domaines: Economies et finances; Sciences de l'environnement

Renaud Crassous, Jean Charles Hourcade, Olivier Sassi. Endogenous structural change and climate targets.: Modeling experiments with Imaclim-R. Energy Journal, 2006, 27 (SPEC. ISS. MAR.), pp.259. ⟨halshs-00009335⟩