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Article Dans Une Revue Climatic Change Année : 2011

## An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai

Nicola Ranger
• Fonction : Auteur
Sumana Bhattacharya
• Fonction : Auteur
Murthy Bachu
• Fonction : Auteur
Satya Priya
• Fonction : Auteur
K. Dhore
• Fonction : Auteur
Farhat Rafique
• Fonction : Auteur
P. Mathur
• Fonction : Auteur
Fanny Henriet
Celine Herweijer
• Fonction : Auteur
Sanjib Pohit
• Fonction : Auteur
Jan Corfee-Morlot
• Fonction : Auteur
• PersonId : 917438

#### Résumé

Managing risks from extreme events will be a crucial component of climate change adaptation. In this study, we demonstrate an approach to assess future risks and quantify the benefits of adaptation options at a city-scale, with application to flood risk in Mumbai. In 2005, Mumbai experienced unprecedented flooding, causing direct economic damages estimated at almost two billion USD and 500 fatalities. Our findings suggest that by the 2080s, in a SRES A2 scenario, an 'upper bound' climate scenario could see the likelihood of a 2005-like event more than double. We estimate that total losses (direct plus indirect) associated with a 1-in-100 year event could triple compared with current situation (to $690-$1,890 million USD), due to climate change alone. Continued rapid urbanisation could further increase the risk level. The analysis also demonstrates that adaptation could significantly reduce future losses; for example, estimates suggest that by improving the drainage system in Mumbai, losses associated with a 1-in-100 year flood event today could be reduced by as much as 70%.,We show that assessing the indirect costs of extreme events is an important component of an adaptation assessment, both in ensuring the analysis captures the full economic benefits of adaptation and also identifying options that can help to manage indirect risks of disasters. For example, we show that by extending insurance to 100% penetration, the indirect effects of flooding could be almost halved. We conclude that, while this study explores only the upper-bound climate scenario, the risk-assessment core demonstrated in this study could form an important quantitative tool in developing city-scale adaptation strategies. We provide a discussion of sources of uncertainty and risk-based tools could be linked with decision-making approaches to inform adaptation plans that are robust to climate change.

### Dates et versions

hal-00719120 , version 1 (19-07-2012)

### Identifiants

• HAL Id : hal-00719120 , version 1
• DOI :

### Citer

Nicola Ranger, Stéphane Hallegatte, Sumana Bhattacharya, Murthy Bachu, Satya Priya, et al.. An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai. Climatic Change, 2011, 104 (1), pp.139. ⟨10.1007/s10584-010-9979-2⟩. ⟨hal-00719120⟩

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