Climate modelling and policy strategies. The role of technical change and uncertainty
Résumé
This paper provides a brief outline of the most recent advances of economic-environmental quantitative modelling. After having described some of the most relevant methodological approaches, the paper focuses on the drawbacks of present models and outlines directions for modelling improvements. Two methodological issues are emphasised: the treatment of uncertainty and the endogenisation of technical progress. The paper describes how recent works, particularly those included in this special issue, tackle these two important problems and which solutions, albeit preliminary, have recently been proposed. It is also stressed how results achieved with models where uncertainty and technical change are adequately dealt with largely differ from those obtained from traditional models. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.