Impact of small scale rainfall uncertainty on urban discharge forecasts

Abstract : We use a multifractal characterization of two heavy rainfall events in the London area to quantify the uncertainty associated to the rainfall variability at scales smaller than the usual C-band radar resolution (1 km2 x 5 min.) and how its transfer to sewer discharge forecasts. The radar data are downscaled to a higher resolution with the help of a multifractal cascade whose exponent values correspond to the estimates obtained from the radar data. A hundred of downscaled realizations are thus obtained and input into a semi-distributed urban hydrological model. Both probability distributions of the extremes are shown to follow a power-law, which corresponds to a rather high dispersion of the results, therefore to a large uncertainty. We also discuss the relationship between the respective exponents. In conclusion, we emphasize the corresponding gain obtained by higher resolution radar data.
Type de document :
Communication dans un congrès
Weather radar and hydrology, Apr 2011, Exeter, United Kingdom. pp.100, 2011
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https://hal-enpc.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00677435
Contributeur : Auguste Gires <>
Soumis le : jeudi 8 mars 2012 - 12:33:55
Dernière modification le : mercredi 19 décembre 2018 - 11:24:06

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  • HAL Id : hal-00677435, version 1

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Auguste Gires, D Schertzer, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, S. Lovejoy, Cedo Maksimovic, et al.. Impact of small scale rainfall uncertainty on urban discharge forecasts. Weather radar and hydrology, Apr 2011, Exeter, United Kingdom. pp.100, 2011. 〈hal-00677435〉

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