The uptake of electric vehicles in the Paris region: A financial analysis of total costs of ownership
Résumé
Recent years have been showing rapidly growing public interest in electric vehicles (EVs). Electric mobility is seen as remedy for many current public concerns, be it the sustainable development of our transport systems, the recovery of the automotive sector and the economy in general, or the economy's energy dependency. National governments are therefore on the verge of launching EV supportive policies that aim to promote and push both, the development and the introduction of EVs as well as their necessary infrastructures. Accompanying research has since been focused on technical issues (mainly concerning EV batteries and accompanying infrastructure), on future customer behavior and EV usage (based on pilot and test projects), and on vehicle demand analyses, which further allow predicting future cost developments and electricity and resource demands. The financial impact of public policies on single users has, however, been studied rather little, although single users' acceptance will be one of the key drivers (or, alternatively, a severe impediment) of EV uptake. This study is an attempt to overcome the current lack of profound financial analyses of EVs regarding the single user case. Both, a total cost of ownership approach, as well as the inclusion of local parameters, enables a profound analysis of financial impacts on EV holders. The example of the Ile-de-France region is applied in order to explore impacts of various policy measures on single EV owners. A range of EV user- and EV usage-scenarios are modeled assuming diverse characteristics of likely EV owners. Furthermore, different market development scenarios are tested. In order to gain a better understanding of modeled results, sensitivities of all TCO influencing factors are calculated. Additionally, cost break-even analyses are carried out that allow exploring the differences between the TCO of an EV and a conventional vehicle. Analyses specifically investigate the parameters 'annual distance driven', 'fuel price' and 'vehicle ownership period'. Results show necessary levels of these parameters in order to achieve a cost break-even of EVs. Finally, propositions for a reasonable and favorable mix of public policies are derived. The developed model can serve for well founded EV demand forecasts based on disaggregate and regional data.