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Long-term power generation adequacy assessment: the TIMES-ANTARES linking model

Abstract : Long term energy scenarios modelling and dispatch simulations are two key stages in a methodology for a cost-effective transition to a low-carbon power system. Although these stages are equally important, they are often performed independently. This decoupled approach can lead to future investment trajectories decided by long term energy models with no guarantee of the generation adequacy. In this respect, the aim of this study has been to develop a general methodological framework using a multi-model approach to investigate optimal energy mixes which meet adequacy requirements. The automated-data-linking model is used to i. Plan the optimal power generation mix to meet a given level of future expected electricity demand subject to various constraints using the TIMES framework (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System); ii. Assess the adequacy of the obtained power generation mix under several climatic and operational future states using the probabilistic operational open-source model ANTARES (A New Tool for the generation Adequacy Reporting of Electric Systems); iii. Implement iterative feedback loops based on the estimated ability of different generating technologies to support peak demand in case of loss of load (capacity credit) to ensure a total firm capacity in line with the electricity supply criterion. This methodology was applied to a case study of power generation planning in France for the time period 2013-2050. The results show that using TIMES alone exposes the power generation mix for 2030 to a risk of insufficient supply. On the other hand, activating the iterative feedback loops over capacity credit parameters had the potential to ensure both the economic effectiveness of the mix and the security of the electricity supply criterion set by the French public authorities.
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Soumis le : jeudi 9 janvier 2020 - 10:23:35
Dernière modification le : vendredi 17 janvier 2020 - 01:35:58

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Y. Alimou, N. Maïzi, J.Y. Bou...
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  • HAL Id : hal-02433458, version 1

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Yacine Alimou, Nadia Maïzi, Jean-Yves Bourmaud, Marion Li. Long-term power generation adequacy assessment: the TIMES-ANTARES linking model. International Energy Workshop (IEW), Jun 2019, Paris, France. ⟨hal-02433458⟩

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